Under/over football betting strategy: a comprehensive guide to beating the odds
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Under/over football betting strategy: a comprehensive guide to beating the odds

Categories: sports betting, strategy 1 Apr 2023 182 0

Football betting has become a popular pastime for many sports enthusiasts. From betting on the winning team to predicting the number of goals scored, there are many options available for bettors. One betting strategy that has gained popularity in recent years is the Under/Over football betting strategy. In this article, we will delve into this betting strategy and provide you with everything you need to know to start beating the odds.

If you want to see a football betting strategy that wins repeatedly, check this out. So, I tracked the results of this super simple betting strategy over the course of 30 days in Excel. I'm going to reveal all the bets, the secret behind how the strategy works, why it's a repeat winner, and how it secures a substantial profit on the under/over's football betting market. It relies on a couple of basic indicators that anyone can find each day, as you'll see in just a second. But first, I need to explain why it worked. It's pointless showing you the indicators without understanding, and it's way more useful than giving out football betting tips as you'll be able to identify these opportunities for yourself. Sometimes the situation evolves and prices change whilst looking for them, so doing it this way gives you maximum value. If you agree, smash the subscribe button for more in the future. Because if you like betting on the unders and overs market, this is the best strategy that you'll ever see.

First 10 days betting strategy

10 day bets
10 days recap

Here are the results for the first 10 days of using this football betting strategy. Look, you can see it doesn't guarantee a winner on every bet. Although I repeatedly win more than I lose whilst using it, there were 16 bets to level 50 pound stakes with only 7 of them winning, 9 loss producing a strike rate of 43.75%. Getting average odds of 2.29 on each bet would have resulted in break even, except we didn't get odds representing the strike rate. We got average odds of 2.66 over those 16 bets, leaving a profit of £112.50 at day 10. 

Now don't panic if that went over your head, it's super simple and I'm going to explain further. But the point I'm making here is the selections were a higher price than they should have been mathematically. If I keep doing this, it means that I win more than I lose in the long run, and that's a fact. Nobody can predict the future, so there's no point trying. This strategy works because it focuses on repeatedly getting value odds, which means I'm guaranteed to win. It's the same reason that betting companies make millions every week because they can't predict the future either. It's just that this strategy ensures that the value proposition is the other way around on my side.

To illustrate, if I reduce the average odds of my 10 days results to a price below the 2.29 average, the final result would have been a loss. And that's how a sportsbook makes a profit. So let me explain exactly how the strategy works and how I'm picking these bets. Then I'll show you the best places where the opportunities arise and why.

Argentinian match odds

So, take a look at my screenshot here showing Argentinian match odds. On the left, we have the odds of Betfair's exchange. Exchanges are the best guide to true price in real-time. There's not a huge amount of money in the market, but you can see that over 2.5 goals odds are between 2.36 and 2.6. Now, there's a gap in the price spread, but the market is telling us that it believes the true odds are somewhere between the two prices. For reference, the midpoint between those two prices is 2.48.


Now, if we compare that to the sportsbook odds on the second screen side of the screen, bearing in mind it doesn't include commission on bets, you'll see that the sportsbook is providing some value here.

The corresponding over 2.5 goals bet is currently priced at 2.55 on the sportsbook, which is higher than the midpoint of 2.48 on the exchange. I'm highlighting this because it's a clear indicator that the sportsbook's bet is overpriced in this instance. Betting on it means we get a bigger price than the marketplace deems the bet is worth. It's a value pick, and by repeatedly betting it, we will eventually win, even if we encounter a string of losing bets.

20 days recap

It's really important that we remember this and believe in the maths because the strategy doesn't work if we start chasing losses, taking a smaller price, or getting emotional about short-term variance in results. The distribution in results can be erratic at the best of times, but long-term probability brings them into the line. Looking at the results by day 20, you can see that this is true. There had been 33 bets in total with 18 losers, yielding a strike rate of 45.45, equivalent to odds of 2.2 on average. This means that if the bet had been priced at 2.2, I would have broken even.

But here's the really important bit I want you to understand here: by using this strategy, the average odds were actually 2.63, significantly higher than they should have been. That's why the results stand at a profit of £300.50, and that's great! But where are the best situations to find value like this on a daily basis, and also, what did the results look like by day 30?

You've probably noticed that there haven't been any Premier League matches amongst the results here, and there's a very good reason for this. I've specifically targeted low-quality football here because this is where the strategy is most effective. Sportsbooks take millions of bets on football every day of the week, and most of them are on the popular matches, such as those in the Premier League. This means they spend a lot more time and money monitoring and changing their odds to make sure they have a good margin built into the prices that they offer.

It's the opposite of what we're looking to do here with this strategy. In effect, they're making sure that odds are bad value and extremely hard to beat in the majority of cases. This strategy works repeatedly on unders better markets on the low-quality stuff because it's an additional market where the pricing isn't so sharp. It's less likely that we'll find value in the market odds or on the Premier League, although it does happen from time to time.

Now, the time I look for these bets is important too. Typically, it's 6 to 12 hours before the match starts that the value is available. Finding them as the market liquidity is forming is best. Setting up automated alerts can help, although I'm not going to go through that in this video.

But before we go through the final results for the full 30 days, there's something very important you need to know about this football betting strategy because there's a downside. Now, it's a shock for some recreational bettors that bookies don't allow repeat winning for long. Despite advertising the opportunity to win, they're sore losers when the little guy repeatedly beats them. They don't play fair, bet fair. They restricted my account for winning.

Recently, the betting company has limited me to betting between 10 pence and 2 pounds 42, as they have recognized that I consistently beat them using this strategy. While this can be frustrating, it proves that the strategy works, and they are aware of it.

To continue winning with this strategy in the future, I will need to use multiple sportsbooks or create extra accounts. Now, let's evaluate how I performed over the 30 days and calculate the value margin for this strategy. If you find this information valuable, please subscribe below.

Final results

Over the course of 50 bets in 30 days, 27 of my over-under bets lost, leaving a total strike rate of 46%. On average, there were one to three bets per day, and the price and time of each bet were logged in line with the Betfair Sportsbook. You can see the corresponding over and under bets and their final results on the right side of the spreadsheet.

The ratio of winners to losers means that the average betting odds needed to break even would have been 2.17. However, the average odds we received were 2.637, resulting in a margin of 0.467 in our favor. This nearly half a price point of value is significant in a polarized market where there are only two possible outcomes.

Using this football betting strategy with 50 pound stakes, I yielded a profit of 534 pounds over 30 days. While this may not seem like a huge result, it is extremely reliable compared to football accumulators, which I explained in this video. If you have ever placed an accumulator bet, you will know what I am talking about.


Q: How does the Under/Over Football Betting Strategy work?

A: The Under/Over Football Betting Strategy involves betting on whether the total number of goals scored in a match will be under or over a certain number. This number is set by the bookmaker, and you can place your bet accordingly.

Q: What are the benefits of using the Under/Over Football Betting Strategy?

A: The benefits of using the Under/Over Football Betting Strategy include the fact that it is a relatively simple strategy to understand and implement. It can also provide a steady stream of profits if used correctly over the long term.

Q: How do I choose the right games to bet on with the Under/Over Football Betting Strategy?

A: To choose the right games to bet on, you should look at factors such as the teams involved, their recent form, and their style of play. You should also consider the bookmaker's odds and the over/under line they have set for the match.

Q: How much should I bet on each game with the Under/Over Football Betting Strategy?

A: The amount you should bet on each game with the Under/Over Football Betting Strategy depends on your bankroll and your risk tolerance. It is generally recommended to bet no more than 1-2% of your bankroll on each game to minimize risk.

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