Arbitrage betting explained
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Arbitrage betting explained

Categories: sports betting, strategy, video 20 Apr 2022 422 0

A while ago, I deposited $200 into a sports betting account, and a couple of months later, I received an email from the platform stating that my account had been changed, and I was banned from the platform. By that time, I had turned my initial deposit of $200 into well over $8,000. I withdrew every single cent once I heard that I had been banned. I did this with other bookmakers like Point Spent, Tab Universe, and Light Brogues. Now, you might be thinking that this is a scam or a get-rich-quick scheme, but it is not. The simple principle behind the strategy I used to bet on these bookmakers' sites and consistently make money is mathematics.

The strategy is called arbitrage betting or positive ev betting. It is based on the mathematical side of sports betting and poses much less risk, allowing you to consistently make money. To explain the math behind arbitrage betting, let's use an example. Let's say you have a coin toss with a 50% chance of it being heads or tails. The sports betting bookmaker allows you to bet on either heads or tails, and both of these options are priced at $1.90 odds. If you bet $1 and are correct, you get $1.90 back, but if you are wrong, you lose your $1 stake.

If two customers bet on the coin toss with odds of 1.90, and one bet on heads while the other bet on tails, and it was heads, then the first customer would make $1.90, while the second customer would lose their initial dollar. The bookmaker makes a net profit of $0.10. The same would apply if it were tails. This is how bookmakers always make money, their odds are underpriced, and the odds are never in your favor.

The formula to calculate odds is 1 over the odds equals the implied chances of winning. For the coin toss example, the odds of winning are 50/50 for heads and tails. The chance of winning with heads is 50, which means one over the odds is equal to 50 or 0.5. This implies that the odds are two, but the bookmaker is only giving you $1.90. Arbitrage betting comes in when the odds are in your favor. You can bet on one or more outcomes at the same time, and regardless of the outcome, you are guaranteed to not lose money. In most cases, you are going to be guaranteed to win money.

So, the strategy behind arbitrage betting is to remove all risk by hedging away. You can bet on one or more outcomes at the same time and, regardless of the outcome, you're guaranteed not to lose money. You're not guaranteed to make money, but in most cases, you are going to win money.

So, I started looking for opportunities to engage in arbitrage betting. Essentially, what you need to do is to find two or more bookmakers that have different odds for the same event. This is not as difficult as it may sound because bookmakers have different ways of setting their odds, and they can vary significantly from one another.

Once you find two bookmakers that have different odds for the same event, you need to calculate the implied probability of each outcome using the formula I mentioned earlier, which is one over the odds equals the implied chances of it winning. If you find that the implied probability of each outcome adds up to less than 100%, then you have found an opportunity for arbitrage betting.

Let me give you an example. Let's say that Bookmaker A is offering odds of 2.5 for Team A to win, and Bookmaker B is offering odds of 2.75 for Team B to win. If you calculate the implied probability for each outcome, you will find that the implied probability of Team A winning is 40%, and the implied probability of Team B winning is 36.36%. If you add these two probabilities together, you get a total of 76.36%, which means that there is a 23.64% chance that neither outcome will happen.

This is where arbitrage betting comes in. You can place bets on both outcomes, making sure that the combined probability of both bets is less than 100%. For example, you could bet $100 on Team A to win at Bookmaker A and $86.96 on Team B to win at Bookmaker B. If Team A wins, you will win $150 ($100 x 2.5), and if Team B wins, you will win $150.45 ($86.96 x 2.75). Either way, you will make a profit of around $50.

Of course, this is a simplified example, and there are other factors to consider, such as betting limits, fees, and transaction times. But the basic principle remains the same: by finding opportunities for arbitrage betting, you can minimize your risk and maximize your profits.

Now, I'm not suggesting that everyone should start doing arbitrage betting. It takes time and effort to find these opportunities, and you need to have a good understanding of the mathematics behind it.

In conclusion, I want to emphasize that this is not a get-rich-quick scheme, nor is it a form of gambling addiction. It's a strategy based on mathematics and careful analysis of the odds. If you're willing to put in the time and effort to research and find opportunities, you can make consistent profits from sports betting through arbitrage betting. And best of all, you can do so while minimizing your risk and avoiding the pitfalls of traditional sports betting.

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